PredictWind automatically combines different forecast models and resolutions when calculating Sail Routing, Power Routing and Departure Planning. The models used depend on the selected forecast model, geographic coverage and the length of the route.
ECMWF, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the ECMWF Route
If your route is inside an area where the AROME model is available, the AROME 1.3 km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first two days of the route; then, the ECMWF 9 km model is used for days 2-10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10–30).
If your route is outside an area where the AROME model is available, the ECMWF 9 km model is used for days 1-10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
GFS, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the GFS Route
If your route is inside an area where the NAM model is available, the NAM 5 km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first 3.5 days of the route; then, the GFS 25 km model is used for days 3.5-10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
If your route is outside an area where the NAM model is available, the GFS 25 km model is used for days 1-10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
UKMO, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the UKMO Route
If your route is inside an area where the UKMO 2K model is available, the UKMO 2 km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first 5 days of the route; then, the UKMO 15 km model is used for days 5-7. Days 7-10 will use ECMWF 9 km data. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
If your route is outside an area where the UKMO 2K model is available, the UKMO 15 km model is used for days 1-7. Days 7-10 will use ECMWF 9 km data. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
PWG, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the PWG Route
If your route is inside an area of 1 km high-resolution PWG GRIBs, this data will be used for the first 36 hours; then, the 8 km data will be used out to day 7. From days 7-10, the PWG 50 km data will be used. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
If your route is outside an area of 1 km/8 km high-resolution PWG forecast, the 50 km PWG forecast will be used to calculate the route to day 10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
PWE, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the PWE Route
If your route is inside an area of 1 km high-resolution PWE GRIBs, this data will be used for the first 36 hours; then, the 8 km data will be used out to day 7. From days 7-10, the PWE 50 km data will be used. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
If your route is outside an area of 1 km/8 km high-resolution PWE forecast, the 50 km PWE forecast will be used to calculate the route to day 10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
ICON, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the ICON Route
If your route is inside an area of 2 km high-resolution ICON GRIBs, this data will be used for the first 48 hours; then, the 7 km data will be used until day 6; from day 6 to day 10, ECMWF 9 km data will be used. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
If your route is outside an area of 2 km/7 km high-resolution ICON forecast, the 50 km ICON forecast will be used to calculate the route until day 6; from day 6 to day 10, ECMWF 9 km data will be used. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from days 10-30).
AIFS, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the AIFS Route
The AIFS 28 km global forecast model is used to calculate the route for days 1–10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble from days 10–30.
PWAi, How Weather Routing Uses Forecast Models for the PWAi Route
The PWAi 25 km global forecast model is used to calculate the route for days 1–10. Any route extending past 10 days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble from days 10–30.
ECMWF ensemble - long range forecast
The ECMWF ensemble model is created by running multiple versions of the ECMWF forecast with slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of potential forecasts.
We download all 51 members of the ECMWF ensemble and use AI to match the ensemble member that most closely matches the 10-day ECMWF forecast; this member is then used for the 10–30-day forecast.
Every 12 hours, we run this AI matching process to update the closest ensemble member. If you use the routing on the forecast website and the PredictWind App, you will see the ECMWF ensemble data load in the maps after 10 days. You will not see this in the Offshore App.
The ECMWF ensemble model can only be viewed when using the Weather Routing and Departure Planning tools in the PredictWind App and Forecast Website.
The dotted line on the Route and Route graphs
The ECMWF ensemble model is represented as a dotted line on the Routing Map page and in Data graphs. The dotted line starts where the forecast model run reaches it's maximum range. From this point onward the route is calculated using the ECMWF ensemble model.
