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Models used in Weather Routing, including Ensemble data
Models used in Weather Routing, including Ensemble data
Nick Olson avatar
Written by Nick Olson
Updated this week

The weather routing algorithm uses the following combinations of forecast models and resolutions for days 1-10. From days 10-30, the ECMWF Ensemble is used.

  • ECMWF: AROME 1.3km if available > ECMWF 9km > Ensemble

  • GFS: NAM 5km if available > GFS 25km > Ensemble

  • UKMO: UKMO 2km if available > UKMO 15km > ECMWF 9km > Ensemble

  • SPIRE: SPIRE 12km > Ensemble

  • PWG: PWG 1km if available > PWG 8km if available > PWG 50km > Ensemble

  • PWE: PWE 1km if available > PWE 8km if available > PWE 50km > Ensemble

The ECMWF Ensemble model can only be viewed when using the weather routing and departure planning tools in the PredictWind App and Forecast website. The routing uses the global ECMWF/Spire/GFS/PWG/PWE model data for 10 days, then uses the ECMWF ensemble from 10 to 30 days. The UKMO forecasts only go out to 7 days; we use the ECMWF forecast from 7 days to 10 days before switching to the ensemble member.

For the Ensemble model, we download all 100 members of the ECMWF ensemble and use AI to match the ensemble member that most closely matches the 10-day ECMWF forecast; the member is then used for the 10-30-day forecast. Every 12 hours, we run this AI matching process to update the closest ensemble member. If you use the routing on the website and the PredictWind App, you will see the ECMWF Ensemble data load in the maps after 10 days.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the models, resolution and time steps.

ECMWF

  • If your route is inside an area where the AROME model is available, the AROME 1.3km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first two days of the route; then, the ECWMF 9km model is used for days 2-10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

  • If your route is outside an area where the AROME model is available, the ECWMF 9km model is used for days 1-10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

GFS

  • If your route is inside an area where the NAM model is available, the NAM 5km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first 3.5 days of the route; then, the GFS 25 km model will be used for days 2-10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

  • If your route is outside an area where the NAM model is available, the GFS 25 km model is used for days 1-10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

UKMO

  • If your route is inside an area where the UKMO 2K model is available, the UKMO 2km high-resolution model will be used to calculate the first five days of the route; then, the UKMO 15 km model will be used for days 5-7. Days 7-10 will use ECMWF 9km data. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

  • If your route is outside an area where the UKMO 2K model is available, the UKMO 15 km model is used for days 1-7. Days 7-10 will use ECMWF 9km data. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

SPIRE

  • The SPIRE 12km model will be used for days 1-10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

PWG

  • If your route is inside an area of 1km high-resolution PWG GRIBS, this data will be used for the first 36 hours; then, the 8km data will be used out to day 7. From days 7 -10, the PWG 50 km data will be used. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

  • If your route is outside an area of 1km/ 8km high-resolution PWG forecast, the 50km PWG forecast will be used to calculate the route to day 10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

PWE

  • If your route is inside an area of 1km high-resolution PWE GRIBS, this data will be used for the first 36 hours; then, the 8km data will be used out to day 7. From days 7 -10, the PWG 50 km data will be used. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

  • If your route is outside an area of 1km/ 8km high-resolution PWE forecast, the 50km PWE forecast will be used to calculate the route to day 10. Any route extending past ten days will be completed using the ECMWF ensemble (from 10 to 30 days).

ECMWF Ensemble

  • For weather routing results from days 10 to 30, we use the ECMWF ensemble to complete the route. We download all 50 members of the ECMWF ensemble and average this forecast data. This has limitations, as expected, but it shows persistent weather patterns. If you use the routing on the PredictWind website and the PredictWind App, you will see the ECMWF Ensemble data load after ten days.

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