Have you ever wondered what forecast model is the most accurate? With PredictWind’s Validation Tool you have the ability to see which model is currently doing the best job for your Forecast Location.
The Validation Tool compares each model's predictions relative to a real-time wind observation near your Forecast Location.
We can view the Validation Data in 2 formats, tables or graphs.
From the main menu on the PredictWind Website or PredictWind App, Click on Validation.
1 Day, means we are seeing the average error for Day 1 of the past week’s or last month’s forecasts. We have the wind speed table and the wind direction table for each period.
7 Day, means we get the average error for all 7 days of the forecasts. Again we have the average error for the past week’s or last month’s forecasts for each of the 7 days in the tables. It is interesting to see the change in the model's performance as the days from the forecast run increase, this gives a good insight into the model's strengths and weaknesses for this location at this time.
In the video example, we can see the PWG model has been doing the best job at predicting the wind speed and direction for Day 1 of the last week’s forecasts. Further down the page on the map, we can see the observation location that the comparison data is sourced from. In this example, we can see the ECMWF performs well especially on days 4-7 compared to the other models.
What does MAE mean?
MAE stands for Mean Absolute Error. You can read more about MAE here.
If, for example, the true wind speed MAE is 2.6, this value is measured in knots and is the average difference between the forecast model and the dedicated observations station.
You can see which observation station is being used on the map; the intersection of the red lines is the station's approximate location.
We have separated each calculation into Wind Speed and Wind Direction.
MAE Wind Speed is the Mean Absolute Error of the True Wind Speed and measured in knots
MAE Wind Direction is the Mean Absolute Error of the True Wind Direction and is measured in the compass degrees
Which wind observation is used to validate my forecast location?
The wind observation used for your forecast location can be found by scrolling down on the validation page. You will find a map with a crosshair. The cross-hair points at the wind observation station used to validate your location (see picture below). Please note:
This wind observation location is determined by your forecast location, you cannot change it.
The model validation is done at this specific point defined by the cross-hair and not at your forecast location.
The same wind observation is used for any forecast location in a 1-kilometer domain. Therefore, there could be a great distance between your forecast location and the validation point.
